Five days after the liberal-democratic coalition emerged victorious in Poland’s October 15th national election, an amusing dispute erupted in the Polish media sphere. A prominent member of the Civic Platform (PO) and former Minister of Defense Tomasz Siemoniak stated that Poland does not have the demographic potential to build a 300,000-strong army - thus challenging what the previous head of Poland’s MoD, Mariusz Błaszczak, had announced. Mr. Siemoniak said that a realistic model for the Polish armed forces would look as follows: 150,000 active duty soldiers, 30-40,000-strong Territorial Defense Forces (much like the National Guard in the US), and 20-30,000 volunteers (soldiers after a year's training who can then sign a contract with the army). Siemoniak's statement - meant to reassure voters that the new ruling coalition wants to continue building a strong army - prompted a historic response from the outgoing Minister of Defense Mr. Błaszczak, who accused the new government of aiming to disarm Poland and planning cuts in the army personnel.
In the final months of the 2023 election campaign, Polish national security became hostage to political interest. In his final days in office, minister Mariusz Błaszczak boasted that he had 193,646 active duty soldiers. Responding to his claims, the liberal-democratic camp stated that the statistics had been grossly manipulated and meant to impress the Polish public. What Mr. Błaszczak claimed to be strictly "active duty soldiers," were in fact civilian employees, cooks, and secretaries employed by the Ministry of Defense.
The 2023 Polish Armed Forces Day – an annual celebration of the victorious battle of Warsaw against the Bolsheviks – saw the largest military parade in modern Poland. The idea was to impress the public with military might ahead of the October elections. Presented equipment included AH-60 Apache helicopters and F-35 aircraft (which the Polish army does not technically own yet). President Andrzej Duda used the opportunity to accuse his political opponents of disarming the Polish armed forces. In the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, PiS-affiliated politicians painted a picture of a Poland ruled by their liberal opponents, claiming that in such a scenario the Polish army would be forced to retreat behind the Vistula River line, half of the country would surrender to Russia, and Poland would only wait for help from NATO allies. To this end, military plans meant to supposedly prove these claims were declassified.
According to the national-conservative camp’s vision, after 2030 Poland is supposed to become a military superpower with at least a 300,000-strong army, more than 1,700 tanks, about 3,000 armored personnel carriers, about a thousand HIMARS-type rocket launchers, about 500 self-propelled howitzer cannons and close to 100 combat aircraft, organized in six heavy (four-brigade) divisions.
Whether such ambitious plans can indeed be implemented remains to be seen. While the ruling liberal-democratic coalition points out that PiS has for years expressed doubts about NATO's capabilities relying primarily on the help of the US, the aim to build a strong, modern army, especially in the context of the bloody war that is taking place near Poland's eastern borders, is supported by all factions across the divided Polish political scene.
Back in the days of the right-wing coalition government, the "Homeland Defense Act" proposing to allocate at least 3% of GDP for defense was supported by nearly all factions in the Polish Sejm. The 2024 budget stipulates that PLN 118.1 billion will be spent on modernizing the armed forces, on top of PLN 39.6 billion from the Armed Forces Support Fund (a financial instrument based on, among other things, bonds issued by the National Bank). That makes a total of PLN 158 billion (about EUR 37 billion), equal to 4.2% of Poland’s GDP. Meanwhile, Germany, a country three times larger than Poland, in 2024 wants to boost its defense spending to 2% of its GDP, or about EUR 100 billion. Most of this money is to be used for arms purchases.
Poland has a unique historical experience. It has lost its independence several times over the past two hundred years and fought repeatedly in bloody uprisings to regain it. In the 20th century alone, it has seen two major wars, underwent bloody German and Soviet occupation, and the capital city of Warsaw, after an uprising that lasted for 63 days, became a sea of rubble with 200,000 dead citizens underneath. There is a sense of abandonment in the Polish society - the memory of September 1939, when Poland, attacked by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, despite solemn guarantees of help from France and England, was left alone, and after the end of the war was left by the Western Allies in the Soviet sphere of influence.
From a Polish point of view, a discussion about strengthening NATO's eastern flank is in fact a vital discussion on national security. Especially since Russia's attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and in fact already after the 2014 war over the Donbas region. That's why in the winter of 2022, Poles opened their doors to Ukrainians fleeing the war. That's why the Polish government, with the approval of the opposition, provided Ukraine with more than 350 T-72, PT-91, and Leopard II tanks, more than a dozen 155 Krab howitzers cannons - which have become a legend on the Donbass front, parts, and then MiG-29 aircraft, or Warmate cruise munitions. All the while, Polish munitions plants are working at full steam. There is a deep conviction that Russia's next target could be Poland, so it is necessary to take advantage of the time that history gives us.
The modernization of the Polish Armed Forces, which rapidly accelerated after February 2022, is based on several important assumptions: the possibility of replacing obsolete post-Soviet armaments, increasing defense capabilities, especially firepower, actually creating a modern anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense, developing a program of unmanned aerial vehicles playing a key role in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
The Law and Justice government, which had been dragging its feet on modernizing the armed forces for several years, and under Antoni Macierewicz as Minister of Defense in 2016 abandoned a very important contract for the supply of H225 Caracal helicopters even before the aggression against Ukraine began, decided in 2020 to purchase 32 F-35 aircraft from the United States, at $4.6 billion. In July 2022, 250 state-of-the-art Abrams M1A2 SEP3 tanks worth PLN23 billion (EUR 5.2 billion). At the outbreak of war, the US offered an additional 116 tanks of the older M1A1 type.
Importantly, the purchase of Abrams tanks is accompanied by a pledge to buy 96 AH 64 Apache attack helicopters (at an estimated cost of $12 billion). The Abrams tanks, along with the helicopters supporting them, are to be deployed in the east of the country as part of the 18th Mechanized Division being formed.
After the transfer of medium tanks from line units to Ukraine, the question arose as to what could replace them. The only option available at the time appeared to be the purchase of Korean tanks. The framework agreement is for the purchase of 1,000 K2 Black Panter tanks, and the executive agreement 180 vehicles in 2023-2026 for $3.37 billion). In the future, Poland wants to build a Polish version of the K2/PL tanks together with Korea. Yet, the Polish and Korean sides have so far failed to reach an agreement. The Polish proposals involve deep modernization along with hull lengthening.
Poland also wants to buy 675 K9A1 howitzers from Korea, 212 of which were covered by the executive agreement ($2.4 billion), and more are to be "polonized" by the Polish side. This purchase has raised doubts inside the Polish defense industry circles from the beginning. After all, the Krab howitzer cannon- the hero of the first days of the war in Ukraine, also ordered by the Ukrainians - is manufactured in Stalowa Wola. The question is whether the Polish product (which uses a Korean chassis) will not be dominated by the more numerous Korean model.
Missile artillery is also to be powerfully reinforced, particularly based on the US HIMARS system and a similar Korean K239 Chumnoo mainly on Polish Jelcz chassis. Poland has applied for the purchase of nearly 500 HIMARS rocket launchers (the final approval from the U.S. Congress is for 484). Already in 2019, Poland bought 20 HIMARS systems, which were delivered in 2023.
Polish ground forces are also to be equipped with new Borsuk armored personnel carriers developed by the Polish Armaments Group - to replace the post-Soviet BWP-1. The order is for 1,000 units. In the future, Poland also wants to build a heavier armored carrier to fulfill the role of Bradley carriers alongside Abrams tanks.
The war in Ukraine has shown the value of unmanned aerial vehicles on the modern battlefield, both in terms of reconnaissance as well as attack. Even before the war in Ukraine, Poland bought 4 sets (6 aircraft each) of the famous Turkish Bayraktars.
Poland started its own program to build unmanned aerial vehicles, but because of the tussle between private manufacturers and the state industry favored by the Ministry of Defense, it developed very slowly. Impressed by the role of drones in protecting the Ukrainian skies, Minister Mariusz Błaszczak decided to sign a contract to build the Gladius system (worth 2 billion) in which the Polish company WB Electronics is to play a major role.
The Gladius program envisions the construction of reconnaissance and attack drones, with a range of about 100 km, which are to directly support artillery. However, there is already talk of expanding its scope to include more attack drones of further range.
At the same time, the Polish Ministry of Defense has declared its intention to purchase American MQ-9 Reaper UAVs.
Plans to modernize and build modern air and missile defense were already laid out by the previous Civic Coalition government. The reason for this decision was the threat in the form of Russian Iskander missiles - deployed in the Königsberg District, putting the entire territory of Poland within range of these missiles, as well as aging post-Soviet systems. At that time, in 2012, the decision was made to build three layers of air defense: Pilica - very short range, short - Narew, and Vistula - medium range based on the US Patriot system (equipped with the latest IBCS fire control system).
In the first years of the Law and Justice government, the construction program was put on hold. In 2018, Minister Mariusz Błaszczak signed a contract for the purchase of two "Patriot" batteries out of a planned eight. These first batteries were delivered and deployed in Warsaw in 2023. The cost: $4.75 billion.
Poland was particularly moved by the Russian Ch 55 missile, which can potentially carry nuclear weapons, which landed unnoticed near Bydgoszcz in December 2022. Earlier, the most likely stray Ukrainian air defense missile killed two Polish citizens in the border town of Przewodowo. At the time, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak boasted that our country had "built a multi-layered air defense system" by rejecting an offer to join Germany's proposed "European Air Defense System".
The war in Ukraine, however, accelerated further decisions. The Polish defense ministry has decided to buy six "Patriot" batteries with equipment. The short-range defense system is to be based on British CAMM-ER missiles manufactured in Poland. Also, these shortest-range missiles will be equipped with Pilica. A contract to this effect worth PLN20 billion (£4 billion) was signed in November 2023 by the Polish arms consortium Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa.
The discussion about the scale and kind of armaments Poland is supposed to buy is rather difficult. This is because former Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak usually announced further decisions on the X (formerly known as Twitter), and the adopted purchase procedure took place not in a tender, but under the fast-track procedure of "urgent operational need." It is necessary to clearly separate announcements from signed contracts, and contracts announced in the media having the character of "framework" from executive agreements. In the last two years, Poland has signed some 250 arms contracts concerning, among other things: support helicopters (AW 149. AW 101), anti-tank launchers, and all-terrain vehicles. Specialized Armed Journal in October 2023 estimated the value of the contracts at about PLN270 million, part of which is to come from a loan from the Korean government (nearly $22 billion), which the Polish public learns about not from the Polish defense ministry, but from discussions in the Korean parliament.
Minister Błaszczak’s successor heading the defense ministry is deputy prime minister and leader of the Polish People's Party Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, representing the coalition's second largest grouping, the Third Way. In the past, Third Way politicians have declared the need to audit the purchases announced by the Ministry of Defense under Minister Mariusz Błaszczak, which, in their view, were made chaotically and without taking into account the interests of the Polish defense industry. However, according to declarations by Democratic Coalition politicians, contracts signed by the previous government will be honored.
This article was written in the framework of The Eastern Frontier Initiative (TEFI) project. TEFI is a collaboration of independent publishers from Central and Eastern Europe, to foster common thinking and cooperation on European security issues in the region. The project aims to promote knowledge sharing in the European press and contribute to a more resilient European democracy.
Members of the consortium are 444 (Hungary), Gazeta Wyborcza (Poland), SME (Slovakia), PressOne (Romania), and Bellingcat (The Netherlands).
The TEFI project is co-financed by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Education and Culture Executive Agency (EACEA). Neither the European Union nor EACEA can be held responsible for them.
Dzisiejsza gazeta (e-wydanie)
