Finnish President Alexander Stubb: Ukraine has already won the biggest battle, now it needs to win the war

After the Cold War, Finland didn’t abolish conscription, and you continued to invest in the military. Did you have a feeling that "the end of story" would not come after all?

– First and foremost, we remembered that since the Middle Ages, we've fought around 30 smaller or larger wars with Russia. Our security policy is based on realism, so when we didn’t join NATO after the Cold War, we decided to maintain a strong military. Conscription was part of that policy. I myself served in the army in the late 80s; my son finished his military service this summer. The result is that 900,000 men and women have undergone military training. In the event of war, we can call up 280,000 people. Our air force, navy, and army are among the strongest in NATO. This was more out of necessity than choice.

In fact, Russia should fear Finland, not the other way around.

– We maintain a strong military not because of some threat from Sweden. I believe that Finland and Sweden’s entry into NATO has significantly strengthened the Alliance. On the one hand, two strong armies have joined, and on the other, NATO’s border with Russia has doubled in length.

I think Russia sees Finland as a stable, predictable state. They know we don’t act foolishly or provoke. We go our own way, and picking a fight with us doesn’t pay off for anyone.

On the Finnish-Russian border, things are calm at the moment. Russia is pulling back its units.

– Yes, four tactical groups were withdrawn from the Leningrad Military District, which borders Finland, and sent to the front in Ukraine. Most of those soldiers were killed, wounded, or taken prisoner by Ukraine. But from our perspective, these types of actions do not change much. We estimate that within the next five years, Russia will be able to rebuild and regroup its forces. Militarily, Russia won’t weaken but will grow stronger. It is therefore a good thing that Finnish soldiers serve in NATO command, and NATO troops are stationed in Finland.

By joining NATO, haven’t you made yourselves a target for Russian missiles?

– We've become more of a target for Russian military propaganda. From a strategic point of view, we are not a significant target. We have to remember that NATO has never been attacked, and there’s a reason for that. It's outlined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty [which guarantees assistance from NATO members to any country under attack].

Nonetheless, Russia’s hybrid war against NATO is in full swing.

– Russia is currently waging two kinds of war: a kinetic one in Ukraine and a hybrid one globally. To face it, we need to be prepared and vigilant. We have to be ready for further waves of disinformation, cyberattacks, and sabotage. Our society needs to be resilient. The Russian hybrid threat has become the new normal, and we must live with it. What matters is how we respond: how quickly we can determine what happened, who’s behind it, and how fast we can recover. This kind of war plays out in people’s minds as well.

I think we’ve already gotten used to it. Last week, I met with Finnish ambassadors. I told them there’s no point in reacting to every attempt by Russia to destabilize our societies. It’s better to stay calm, be composed, and respond cool-headedly.

Would you recommend this approach to other NATO members?

– We’re already facing many hybrid attacks. I fear there will soon be more. We have to be ready for acts of sabotage, and when they happen, we need to figure out who’s behind them and discuss with our allies how to respond. If Russia conducts an information war over border issues, we analyze the situation and respond firmly and decisively. That’s what we have to do. Russia uses the "divide and conquer" strategy. That cannot be accepted.

Can Europe really take a tough stance when dealing with Russia?

– Certainly more than before. NATO's center of gravity has shifted eastward for obvious reasons. Right now, Poland and Finland are quite similar. Within the Alliance, we are inseparable. We have the military strength to handle the situation, and we must also be mentally prepared for it. And I am confident that if the need arises, we will be ready.

It has weaponized migrants at our borders, using Belarus as a tool for this. It's important that our response is unified and that we support each other. There is a case currently being heard by the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg regarding the instrumentalization of migrants. Finland will intervene and defend Poland [this concerns a complaint filed by a group of foreigners who were subjected to so-called pushbacks by the Polish Border Guard in 2021].

The case you're referring to is the result of human rights violations occurring at the Polish-Belarusian border.

– That’s what makes it challenging. In Finland, we're discussing a new foreign policy approach that I call value-based realism. On one hand, we want to uphold and defend values such as human rights, democracy, rule of law, and freedom of speech, and we want to maintain an international order based on values. On the other hand, we have to stay realistic and make tough compromises. When Russia uses migrants as a political tool, it's no longer a matter of asylum policy. It becomes a security issue.

Yes, it's not easy. But foreign policy always involves complex judgments about values.

People have died at the Polish-Belarusian border…

– That’s why we need legislation that ensures such things don’t happen. Russia and Belarus hide behind the need to defend the rule of law and international law to infiltrate our systems. But the only language they truly understand is the language of force.

You're talking about responding with force, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is calling for an end to the war in Ukraine and a peace conference with Russia. Isn't it too soon for that?

– Peace cannot be achieved without talking about it. And the timing is crucial. The question is, on whose terms will the peace be made, where, and when? These are questions that President Volodymyr Zelensky must answer. I’ve spoken with him at length about his 10-point peace plan and participated in the peace conference he organized in Switzerland. I believe we need a just peace. It must be concluded on Ukraine's terms. The conclusion of peace must also send a message to the world that imperialism, aggression, and armed invasion don’t pay off—that they come with serious consequences. Putin must be punished for starting this war. He needs to pay as high a price as possible. He must lose.

For such a solution to become possible, Russia must be defeated.

– We should not forget that Ukraine has already won the biggest battle – the battle for independence and sovereignty. Putin wanted to absorb and Russify Ukraine, but instead, Ukraine has become European. It will become a member of the European Union and NATO. The conditions for peace depend on Ukraine. Zelensky must secure four key elements: regain the territory occupied by Russia, obtain security guarantees, hold those responsible for crimes against his nation accountable, and rebuild the country. I think Zelensky’s peace plan makes sense. Putin must understand that he will lose this peace – he will lose badly.

So far, Putin doesn’t seem to understand that.

– Because he’s not receiving accurate information about what’s happening. What we’re witnessing is Putin’s "swan song". It’s the end for him.

What will happen to Russia without Putin?

– This is undoubtedly a question that we should analyze carefully, consider all scenarios, their consequences, and prepare our responses. They came with the message that the day will come when Russia changes. Well, let’s hope so. However, I fear the more realistic scenario is that whoever replaces Putin won’t be a good, liberal democrat.

Last summer, people in Russia were cheering when Dmitry Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner mercenary group, marched on Moscow with his men. And Prigozhin was, in fact, a murderer. We have to remain realistic about Russia. Imperialism is in Russia’s DNA—its entire existence revolves around conquering territories and enslaving other nations. There’s no need to explain that to Finns or Poles.

We must give peace a chance, and maybe someday we can give Russia a chance too. But not now. Now, we have to be tough on Russia.

We’ve seen Russia at its most brutal. But for elites in Germany and France, Russia was a long-standing and reliable partner.

– After what Putin has done, this is a thing of the past. Looking at how quickly we ended our energy dependence on Russia, how trade has changed, and how Europeans' attitudes have shifted, I think there’s no going back to how things were.

The Russians are constantly bombing Ukrainian cities. The Ukrainians are asking for long-range missiles to destroy Russian bomber bases. Yet, they still haven't been provided.

– So, they’re using their drones instead. Finland, however, has not placed any restrictions on the use of weapons and ammunition we’ve provided to Ukraine. Whatever they do in self-defense, within the framework of international law – which Putin constantly violates – is perfectly acceptable to us. Let me repeat: Ukrainians have every right to defend themselves.

And what about the red lines set by the Kremlin?

– Discussing Russia’s so-called "red lines" is pointless. Putin doesn’t follow any rules. He kills innocent people – women, children – bombs hospitals, kindergartens, destroys schools, theaters, residential buildings. Day after day. There’s no boundary he won’t cross, no limit to the resources he’s willing to exploit, including the lives of his own citizens, whom he sends to die in this war. We need to understand his way of thinking. For Putin, human life – whether Russian or Ukrainian – means nothing.

One of the red lines set by the Kremlin was attacks on Russian territory. The Ukrainians are not only doing this, but they've also captured a sizable part of the Kursk region. And nothing is happening.

– Strategically, this was a smart move by the Ukrainians, raising the cost Russia has to pay for the war. We must, through all available channels, make it clear to Russia that they should expect more of these kinds of actions. Ukraine is in a better position now than it was four months ago. However, from a military standpoint, their situation is still critical. We need to continue supporting Ukraine for as long as necessary.

We’re not able to replenish the losses in the Ukrainian army, while Russia has far greater capacity to mobilize recruits than Ukraine.

– In Ukraine, the conscription age is still above 25, and their army is making excellent use of the resources it has. It’s not so much a conventional war but a technologically advanced one. Look at their use of drones – Ukraine is doing quite well here. The disparities between the two armies aren’t as vast as they were before.

After last year’s elections, Poland is back in Europe. What role should it play?

– We need a strong democratic Poland that can be constructive, and that’s exactly how we see it now. Poland's leadership is very strong, and I would love to see even more Polish involvement in cooperation with the Nordic and Baltic states. Poland holds a strong position within the Weimar Triangle and is a key player in the functioning of the entire European Union. A lot of people in the EU trust Poland. Without a doubt, we need a European Poland.

Alexander Stubb (born 1968) – won the Finnish presidential election in February this year. He served as Prime Minister from 2014-2015, and later as Minister of Finance. During his visit to Warsaw on September 10, 2024, he met with President Andrzej Duda and Speaker of the Sejm, Szymon Hołownia. He also gave a lecture at the annual ambassadors' conference organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Translation: Patrycja Eiduka