Even 200,000 voters may not be enough for parties to secure seats in the Slovak parliament.
Prime Minister Robert Fico of Smer has proposed raising the eligibility threshold to enter parliament from 5 percent to 7 percent, as he outlined on a state broadcaster STVR radio programme on November 9. Such a measure would be unique in Europe, with a level of stringency that surpasses even that of authoritarian regimes, such as the Russian Federation.
A report by the daily Sme suggests that, under certain conditions, Fico’s ruling party, Smer, could consolidate its hold on power, while Progressive Slovakia, the main opposition party, would be barred from forming government coalitions. However, Fico lacks support for this proposal from his coalition partners, Hlas and the far-right Slovak National Party.
In addition to the higher threshold, Fico has suggested raising the electoral deposit required for parties to participate in parliamentary elections from the current €17,000 to €500,000.
Fico is also concerned by the number of registered parties in Slovakia, which he claims exceeds 100. However, this has little bearing on the functioning of parliament and government.
Slovakia would become a rarity in the European Union and in Europe if political parties were required to secure at least 7 percent of the vote from eligible voters in order to enter parliament.
In the early parliamentary elections held in September 2023, a party would have needed at least 210,000 votes. Under the current 5-percent threshold, the last party to exceed the threshold was the Slovak National Party, with just under 167,000 votes. Voters from four out of the seven parties currently in parliament (OLaNO, KDH, SaS, and SNS) would lose their parliamentary representation. Together, these parties received over 800,000 votes.
In the 2020 elections, just three years earlier, parties would have needed at least 204,000 votes to pass the threshold. Under the current rules, the weakest party in parliament would have been Za ludí (For the People), with 166,000 votes. Two parties (Za ludí and SaS) that were in parliament would also have failed under Fico’s system, and another 300,000 votes would have been lost.
The purpose of electoral thresholds is not to restrict free electoral competition but to limit extreme and marginal ideological movements with too little societal support.
Among the 27 EU member states, none has a 7-percent or higher eligibility threshold for parliament. The highest is 5 percent, the same as in Slovakia, and is applied by 11 EU countries.
In Europe, there are two countries with a threshold higher than 5 percent: Liechtenstein, with a population of 40,000 (similar to the Slovak town of Zvolen), has an 8-percent threshold, and Moldova has a 6-percent threshold.
For example, in Russia, the electoral threshold is also 5 percent.
The daily Sme modelled the results of previous elections under the rules proposed by Fico. This is only an illustration, as smaller political parties would likely have responded to the new rules by attempting to form joint slates, which would have led to different actual election results.
Had the snap parliamentary elections in 2023 been held under Fico’s proposed rules, for the first time, a governing coalition would likely have emerged with over 100 parliamentary seats, thus securing the largest constitutional majority to date.
As the election winner, Smer, with 22.94 percent of the vote, would have gained 62 parliamentary seats. The second-placed Progressive Slovakia would have earned 48 seats with 17.96 percent, while Hlas would have claimed the remaining 40 seats, despite receiving just 14.7 percent of the vote. No other party would have entered parliament. The fourth-placed OLaNO movement, led by former prime minister Igor Matovič, garnered 8.89 percent of the vote but ran in an electoral coalition with other parties. For these, the threshold for entering parliament would likely have been higher under Fico’s system, meaning that they would not have been elected.
A potential coalition of the current governing parties, Smer and Hlas, would have had a 102-member majority in the 150-member parliament.
The winner of the 2020 parliamentary election, OLaNO led by Matovič, would have gained 63 seats under Fico’s system. In forming a government, Matovič would have had only three other parties to choose from, as the others failed to surpass the higher threshold.
If Matovič had followed Fico’s system after the elections, he would have formed a coalition with the third-largest party, Sme Rodina, which would have gained 21 seats. Together, they would have had 84 seats, insufficient for a constitutional majority of 90 votes, which they had under the current system with additional parties, Za ludí and SaS. Smer, as the second-largest party with 46 seats, and the far-right LSNS with 20 seats, would also have been in parliament.
Although the second-placed SaS, led by Richard Sulík, tried to form a government coalition after the 2016 elections, it was ultimately the coalition of Smer, SNS, Siet, and Most-Híd that was decided by Radoslav Procházka (Siet) and Béla Bugár (Most-Híd), who accepted Fico’s offer. Siet later collapsed, with some of its members leaving for the opposition and others joining Most-Híd. The final governing coalition was formed by Smer, SNS, and Most-Híd, with 81 seats.
Had these elections been held under Fico’s proposed electoral system, five parties would have entered parliament instead of eight: Smer, SaS, OLaNO, SNS, and LSNS. Smer and SNS would have held 62 and 19 seats, respectively, together amassing a total of 81 seats.
"I am talking about the future, I am not talking about changes for this period," said Fico on November 9.
It is unclear what he meant by this. The proposed changes to the electoral rules would have no impact on the current parliamentary term. The prime minister likely referred to changes for the next parliamentary elections, which would not be affected by any potential adjustments at this stage.
Regardless, the Sme newspaper recalculated the seats according to the electoral rules proposed by Fico, using the latest NMS Market Research poll from October. If the elections were held today, only four parties would make it to parliament.
The winner of the election would be PS, with 24.4 percent of the vote. Although it would secure 57 seats, it would not be able to form a government coalition.
Second place would go to Smer, with 20.5 percent of the vote and 48 seats. They would be able to form a coalition with the third party, Hlas. With a 12-percent support from voters, Hlas would secure 28 seats, and together with Smer, they would have a slim majority of 76 seats.
The fourth party to enter parliament would be the far-right Republika, with 7.4 percent of the vote and 17 seats. If it joined a coalition, the governing majority would comprise 93 seats, giving them a constitutional majority.
Although raising the electoral threshold to 7 percent will not automatically create a two-party system, in practice, it excludes or threatens the parliamentary participation of a significant number of parties.
For this reason, Fico’s idea has not received support from any other parties, including his coalition partners, Hlas and SNS. Andrej Danko’s SNS party is already at risk, even with the current lower threshold, as its popularity is below 5 percent.
Hlas, whose leader’s rhetoric resembles that of Smer, has not taken part in the elections under the leadership of Matúš Šutaj Eštok, and it is possible that, before the next elections, some of its supporters may decide to vote for Smer, bringing Hlas closer to the danger zone.
Since Igor Matovič and his OLaNO party passed a constitutional law in the previous parliamentary term stating that Slovakia forms a single electoral district with proportional representation, the affected parties could turn to the Constitutional Court to assess whether Fico’s proposed system violates these principles.
"The way we politically govern this country harms the Slovak economy and the management of the entire state," Fico generally stated about the current electoral system.
As a four-time prime minister, this is the first time he has found himself in a position where his government is supported by only a narrow majority in parliament. After three members of parliament around Rudolf Huliak from the National Coalition left the SNS parliamentary caucus, Fico is now certain of just 76 votes, the narrowest majority.
A 7-percent threshold would mean significantly more parliamentary seats for successful parties. Individual departures would likely pose less of a threat to government support in parliament.
However, even this system would not affect the stability of government coalitions if entire parties were to leave, as happened with SaS in 2022. The OLaNO-led government collapsed a few months later, in December 2022.
The assumption that Fico would implement the system for a short-term goal, to strengthen Smer and Hlas as stronger coalition partners at the expense of SNS in the next election, does not hold.
Even with the new system, Fico could not be certain whether he would need the far-right Republika party to govern, a party whose members previously left their original party, LSNS.
From Fico’s perspective, the greatest subjective advantage of the system would likely be that it would prevent the formation of a government coalition led by the Progressive Slovakia movement. Any of the movement’s potential coalition partners, such as SaS, Demokrati, or KDH, might not be able to overcome the higher threshold. The assumption, however, is that despite Fico’s proposed changes, they would go into the elections independently.
This article was written in the framework of The Eastern Frontier Initiative (TEFI) project. TEFI is a collaboration of independent publishers from Central and Eastern Europe, to foster common thinking and cooperation on European security issues in the region. The project aims to promote knowledge sharing in the European press and contribute to a more resilient European democracy.
Members of the consortium are 444 (Hungary), Gazeta Wyborcza (Poland), SME (Slovakia), PressOne (Romania), and Bellingcat (The Netherlands).
The TEFI project is co-financed by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Education and Culture Executive Agency (EACEA). Neither the European Union nor EACEA can be held responsible for them.
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