Following the September floods in southern Poland and neighboring countries, questions are being raised about the future, various aspects of water security, and health. Floods, for instance, have a significant impact on mental health, as we will explain in detail shortly. We discussed these issues with Dr. Aleksandra Kaźmierczak, an expert from the European Environmental Agency (EEA).
What Does the EEA Do? "Our primary role is to gather information about the environment in EU member states," explains Dr. Kaźmierczak. "When new EU legislative initiatives related to the environment or climate arise, we prepare reports for the European Commission, other European institutions, and member states. But, perhaps most importantly, we make these reports available online, so all Europeans can understand the state of the environment. For example, we monitor data on biodiversity, air and water quality, and greenhouse gas emissions".
In May, the EEA published a report on the connections between climate, water, and health. "According to scientific forecasts, the total amount of rainfall in northern Europe will increase, while in the south it will decrease. However, extreme rain events like the one we recently experienced are expected to become more frequent across Europe," says Dr. Kaźmierczak.
When Dr. Kaźmierczak speaks of Europe, she refers to 38 countries, although the EEA has the most precise data from the 27 EU member states. "We also collaborate with Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Turkey, and the Balkan countries," the expert clarifies.
Such disasters have a direct impact on health and life. During the September floods in our region of Europe, at least 24 people lost their lives. Scientists have no doubt that the scale of the disaster was exacerbated by climate change. In addition to Poland, the hardest-hit countries were the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, and Romania. Over the past three years alone, hundreds of Europeans have died in floods across Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Italy.
"Our analyses, which compare flood risk areas with population distribution, show that about 12% of the EU population may live in flood-prone areas," says Dr. Kaźmierczak. "Many of these areas are protected by levees or other flood defenses. However, as we painfully learned recently, many of these systems are only effective up to a certain point. They can only hold back a specific amount of water and are designed to different standards. Unfortunately, residential buildings continue to be constructed in potential flood zones," she adds.
During the September flood, the media reported on the evacuation of patients from a hospital in Nysa, a city in southwestern Poland on the Nysa Kłodzka river, situated in the Opole Voivodeship. "For hospitals in 29 European countries (EU, plus Switzerland and Norway), we conducted a separate analysis and found that as many as 11 pct. – or one in nine hospitals – are located in flood-prone areas," estimates Dr. Kaźmierczak.
Floods affect our health not only directly but also by disrupting or even entirely preventing medical care. Dr. Aleksandra Kaźmierczak highlights a less obvious consequence that becomes evident once the waters recede: "Many people who lose everything to floods suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), or in simpler terms, they experience trauma. These individuals often face the loss of homes, but also schools and hospitals, impacting entire local communities," she explains.
She adds: "The mental health toll is hard to quantify. It can affect tens of thousands of families who, for a time, live in damp, moldy houses or have lost irreplaceable family mementos. The psychological strain is compounded by battles with insurers or delays caused by contractors".
In Poland, flood-stricken areas have also faced looting. Police have managed to apprehend culprits, but some residents have taken matters into their own hands, forming citizen patrols to protect their property.
According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), a nonprofit organization focusing on resources like water, 25 countries worldwide – home to nearly one-fourth of the global population – are exposed to "extreme water stress," meaning they use up 80 pct. of their available renewable water resources.
The five most water-scarce nations globally are Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, and Qatar. Within the European Union, Cyprus faces the greatest shortages.
The WRI warns that water usage is increasing due to global population growth, driving higher domestic consumption as well as rising demand in agriculture, industry, and energy sectors.
"It’s estimated that by 2050, an additional billion people will live under conditions of extreme water scarcity," the WRI cautions. Northern Africa and the Middle East – regions near the EU’s borders – are particularly vulnerable.
Currently, about 30 pct. of Europe’s population lives in areas with water shortages, where water resources cannot replenish fast enough to keep up with usage, says Dr. Kaźmierczak. "In summer, this figure can rise to 75 pct. in southern Europe. Agriculture and industry consume the most water. Particularly severe droughts occurred in 2022, with water being delivered by tanker trucks to nearly 100 municipalities in France. Italy imposed water usage restrictions, and similar measures were taken in Poland. This year, Spanish reservoirs were reportedly filled to only a fraction of their capacity, leading to bans on watering lawns and filling swimming pools".
The EEA uses its Water Exploitation Index to measure the ratio of water usage to available resources. Dr. Kaźmierczak notes: "Over the years, the Iberian Peninsula has often faced water stress, but so have countries like the Netherlands, Germany, and parts of Poland, likely due to high industrial or agricultural water use".
Drought and damaged crops – often overlooked in public debates – have significant implications for food prices and quality. As farmers seek to recover field losses, food prices can rise, potentially leading consumers to choose cheaper but lower-quality products.
"In Europe, we don’t currently have to worry about food security," says Dr. Kaźmierczak, "but quality is increasingly being discussed. In 2023, drought drove up the prices of Spanish tomatoes and oranges by 25–35 pct. Less affluent families or those with many children may find it harder to maintain a healthy diet as a result".
Another concern related to food and water security is that drought can make crops more vulnerable to diseases, pests, and fungi, which can, in turn, increase toxins in the food we consume. Dr. Kaźmierczak cites an example: "Nearly 20 years ago, a large amount of maize in Italy was contaminated due to such conditions."
Certain agricultural practices can exacerbate the water crisis. The Spanish newspaper El País recently reported on the paradox of avocado cultivation in Spain. Avocados, an exotic crop requiring vast amounts of water, deepen the water crisis. In some cases, farmers have resorted to digging illegal wells to sustain the production of these lucrative but non-essential fruits.
In our reports, we also use data from the CATDAT database maintained by RiskLayer regarding weather and climate-related losses and fatalities. Between 1980 and 2022, floods in Europe claimed 5,582 lives, while fires caused 702 deaths. However, the effects of wildfires extend beyond immediate casualties. The inhalation of smoke, laden with toxins and particulate matter, has significant long-term health consequences. Firefighters are especially vulnerable, and exposure is linked to increased risks of cancer and other chronic conditions.
The connection to water stress is clear: as forests and grasslands dry out, fires become more frequent.
Water is essential for cooling the body during heatwaves, often referred to as "silent killers" in the media. It not only quenches thirst but also cools the body. Vulnerable groups – such as the elderly, people with cardiovascular or respiratory illnesses, and children – are especially at risk. Ensuring access to drinking water in areas with depleting renewable supplies is a critical public health and safety issue.
Dr. Kaźmierczak notes that Europe lacks a unified system for monitoring the effects of heatwaves because different countries define them in various ways. Therefore, we rely on scientific analyses that correlate mortality data with weather patterns and model how many deaths may be attributed to heatwaves. For instance, in 2022, approximately 70,000 people across Europe may have died prematurely due to heatwaves (compared to around 47,000 the previous year). Those suffering from dementia or Alzheimer’s disease are especially vulnerable, as they often struggle to take appropriate action or fully comprehend their circumstances.
In the United States, the issue of drinking water is becoming increasingly important, particularly in the West and Southwest, where water is scarce and cities such as Austin, Texas; Phoenix, Arizona; and Las Vegas, Nevada – built in desert regions – are rapidly growing.
In a recently published book in the U.S. titled Purified, Peter Annin illustrates the efforts of local officials to persuade residents, including those in San Diego, California, to reuse wastewater – after it has undergone complex purification processes such as reverse osmosis and ultraviolet disinfection – instead of discharging it into nearby rivers. The treated water could even be used for drinking.
This recycled "tap water" could be a lifeline for metropolitan areas far from seas or oceans, where desalination is not financially (or environmentally) feasible. Annin demonstrates that recycled water is safe for drinking and that resistance to its adoption stems mainly from prejudice and populist rhetoric from opponents, such as slogans like "from toilet to tap," which have made headlines. At the end of this process, one might even find a pint of beer brewed with recycled wastewater.
Gray water can also be used in agriculture, provided it is properly treated. In Mediterranean countries, recycled water is often used for watering parks or washing streets. It must undergo rigorous testing before being integrated into irrigation systems. A few years ago, in 2018, even Ireland – a country not typically associated with water shortages – experienced a drought. Vegetables were watered using alternative sources, but unfortunately, some lettuce became contaminated with Salmonella, causing an outbreak that sickened over 200 people, with some requiring hospitalization, as noted by Dr. Kaźmierczak.
The conclusion? For Europe, ensuring water security – and by extension, public health – is not just about the quantity of available water but also its quality. Unfortunately, many rivers and lakes across the continent are still treated as sewers or dumping grounds.
Occasionally, absurd situations highlight how sensitive rivers are to human activity. In our Polish newspaper Wyborcza, we reported on how scientists analyzed water in a river flowing through the Glastonbury Festival site (it’s no secret that festival-goers often urinate in and near the river). They found high concentrations of substances like cocaine and ecstasy, which posed a threat to protected eels.
"An alternative is desalinating seawater for crop irrigation. However, studies in Israel have shown that vegetables and fruits watered with desalinated water contain fewer minerals, including magnesium, whose deficiency can also affect health" – says Dr. Kaźmierczak. However, she reassures us that the reuse of water – though not "black water" (sewage) but mixed municipal water treated in wastewater plants – has surprisingly high public approval in Europe. Around 60–70% of EU citizens would support its use, not necessarily as drinking water but for other purposes.
The expert also reminds us that older-generation wastewater treatment plants cannot remove certain contaminants, such as trace amounts of pharmaceuticals or contraceptives. For example, in 2018, low water levels in German rivers coincided with higher concentrations of ibuprofen and its derivatives. In general, drought increases the concentration of pollutants in rivers, which poses health risks. After all, rivers and lakes also serve as swimming areas, she adds.
Low water levels in European rivers impact other sectors as well. "In 2018, for instance, restrictions were imposed on transportation along the Rhine, Elbe, and Danube rivers, which are critical for shipping. Barge owners had to reduce their cargo loads to prevent vessels from sinking too deeply and becoming stuck. This reduced cargo capacity led to additional costs, such as storage fees and delays in deliveries", as outlined by an EEA expert.
A similar situation occurred on the Rhine in 2022, where delays in the delivery of energy resources ultimately affected energy prices. This energy is particularly needed in summer for powering air conditioning, which has become essential for older and sick individuals to endure extreme heat. Once again, this ties back to health issues.
Lower river levels also pose challenges for hydroelectric power. In the U.S., this is often associated with the Hoover Dam and the drying Lake Mead, which powers a hydroelectric plant on the Colorado River.
In Europe, countries such as Norway, Sweden, France, Austria, Italy, and Switzerland produce significant amounts of energy from hydropower. "Climate forecasts suggest that northern Europe will likely see increased rainfall, but regions relying on glacier or snowmelt water, particularly in southern Europe, such as Italy, may face challenges. Hydro plants in these areas could encounter difficulties due to reduced snow in the mountains during winter and lower river levels in spring and summer".
Another issue linked to rivers and water security involves cooling coal and nuclear power plants, as well as combined heat and power plants. "Cooling these facilities requires water, and during periods of low water levels, there is a risk that the warm water released back into the rivers could disproportionately affect the remaining water. This can have severe negative effects on aquatic ecosystems", as noted by Dr. Kaźmierczak. She recalls that years ago in Poland, there were calls to limit electricity consumption during the day for similar reasons.
For the record, the Vistula River in Warsaw recorded its lowest water level in history this year. In early September, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management of Poland reported that the level at the Warsaw-Boulevards station was 20 cm, surpassing the previous record low of 26 cm during the summer-autumn drought of 2015.
Some scientists refer to the war in Syria as the first "climate war". Its outbreak in 2011 was preceded by four years of severe drought, compounded by a rapid population increase – from 4 million in the 1950s to 22 million before the war. The Assad regime also promoted cotton cultivation, a water-intensive crop. Agriculture collapsed, forcing 1.5 million people to leave rural areas and migrate to cities.
Europe may not face a bloody civil war like Syria, but sectoral conflicts over water have been ongoing for several years. "One of its most recent flashpoints was the farmers' protests against the European Union's plans, which they perceived as restrictions on their activities but were, in fact, intended to protect the environment, including water resources," Dr. Kaźmierczak points out. She adds, "Agriculture competes for water with industry, energy, and our everyday needs. The question is which interests should be prioritized and protected".
Dr. Kaźmierczak highlights that farmers are on the front line of this issue. Their crops and livelihoods are directly threatened by extreme weather events, including droughts. However, across Europe, the agricultural sector employs 8.7 million people – the same number as the healthcare and social care sectors. When I was in school, we were taught in geography lessons that about a quarter of the workforce in Poland was employed in agriculture. Today, it’s an entirely different scale.
The share of people working in agriculture has been declining for many years. In 2022, it was 8.4 pct., and now it is closer to 6 pct.
We must also remember that farmers' work directly affects food security, and by extension, public health. However, Europe will never be self-sufficient in food production. Many crops, vegetables, and fruits cannot grow here, and we will always need to import them.
This raises a critical question: should we make difficult decisions that may impact specific sectors and social groups but ultimately contribute to the long-term water security of the entire population?
In mid-October 2024, the EEA released a groundbreaking report summarizing the state of Europe’s water bodies, including lakes, rivers, coastal waters, and groundwater. The key finding was that, according to data from EU countries between 2015 and 2021, only 37 pct. of surface water bodies in Europe achieved "good" or "high" ecological status. This status is a measure of the health of aquatic ecosystems under the EU Water Framework Directive. Meanwhile, only 29 pct. reached "good" chemical status.
Dr. Aleksandra Kaźmierczak works at the European Environment Agency in a team focused on climate change adaptation and heads the European Observatory on Health and Climate. This project is jointly managed with the Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) and the Directorate-General for Health and Food Safety (DG SANTE). For over a decade, she also worked on issues related to urban adaptation to climate change. She earned her doctorate in the United Kingdom, researching the impact of urban greenery on local communities. Her studies explored how parks in Manchester could either serve as hubs for local communities or, conversely, become areas dominated by gangs. For a time, she lectured at a university in the UK. She now lives in Copenhagen, where the European Environment Agency is headquartered.
Translation: Patrycja Eiduka
This article was written in the framework of The Eastern Frontier Initiative (TEFI) project. TEFI is a collaboration of independent publishers from Central and Eastern Europe, to foster common thinking and cooperation on European security issues in the region. The project aims to promote knowledge sharing in the European press and contribute to a more resilient European democracy.
Members of the consortium are 444 (Hungary), Gazeta Wyborcza (Poland), SME (Slovakia), PressOne (Romania), and Bellingcat (The Netherlands).
The TEFI project is co-financed by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Education and Culture Executive Agency (EACEA). Neither the European Union nor EACEA can be held responsible for them.
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