Orbán vs. Fico: The Battle for Putin's Affection

The two politicians could even help each other, but there is little sign of cooperation or joint action so far, so the question may arise as to who would be the winner if Putin had to choose between the two Central European leaders on any issue. We have looked at how Orbán and Fico stand in this respect in a few imaginary races.

1. Roots

When it comes to trust, acquaintanceship, or even friendship, it matters how long it has been going on. The winner in this race is certainly Fico, who started his career in the Czechoslovak Communist Party and continued with the successor party after the regime change. When he failed to make many friends in the EU during his first premiership, from 2006-2010, he opened up to Serbia and Russia, touting Slavic solidarity. His pro-Russian stance has remained throughout, already in the 2008 Russian-Georgian conflict he blamed Georgia, and called the 2014 sanctions on Russia over its seizure of Crimea pointless. In the 2023 election campaign, he made a memorable pledge not to give a single bullet to Ukraine.

When it comes to Fico's attitude to the Russo-Ukrainian war, the Slovak press often brings up a case from 2009: a Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute meant that no gas was coming to Slovakia and Fico went to Kiev to negotiate. There he was kept waiting for three hours, then, instead of the promised meeting behind closed doors, he was displayed in front of journalists and Yulia Tymoshenko began to criticise him live on camera for siding with the Russians. A few days later, the then Slovak president also travelled to Kiev because his Ukrainian counterpart had promised to restart gas. At the negotiating table, however, the Ukrainian Naftohaz chairman surprisingly announced that the deal would not work after all. The Slovak political circles concerned, led by Fico, have since lost confidence in Ukraine, and they have not forgotten that the Russians, on the other hand, received them normally.

A story from 2009 is also quoted about Orbán, who was for a long time a hardliner against Russia, and who met Putin in Saint Petersburg that year, when he was about to take office. In 2008, he was still anti-Russian on the Russian-Georgian conflict, but in 2014, he took the memorable "we shot ourselves in the foot" turn, criticising the sanctions.

2. Gestures

Fico is unbeatable here: he scores from half-court in the Champions League final, hits a nine-darter in the darts World Cup, takes the yellow, the polka dot and the green jerseys at the Tour. As early as October 2024, he started talking about taking part in the parade in Moscow organized this year to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. "I will not forget that freedom came from the East," he explained. It's his favourite phrase, and he has used it before. He also announced the visit on the pro-Kremlin TV channel Russia-1, when he appeared online on the show of Olga Skabeyeva, who is on the sanctions list. In return, Skabeyeva boasted that it was the first time she had spoken to the leader of a country that was a member of the EU and NATO.

At the end of November 2024, Fico went to Belgrade and arranged with his counterpart Aleksandar Vučic to go to the parade together, and a few days later the official invitation arrived from Putin to put a diplomatic framework behind the great enthusiasm.

By contrast, Orbán will not be in Moscow, as Gergely Gulyás announced at a government briefing, and we understand he will not appear on Russian TV programmes either.

Fico also stole the show from Orbán by offering to host the peace talks. Even though Hungary has been repeating since the outbreak of the war that the Russo-Ukrainian peace talks could be held in Budapest, and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó has been throwing it around again in the summer and before Christmas, only Fico’s offer made the news. After his visit to Moscow, Putin revealed that the Slovak Prime Minister had offered his country as a venue. This was later confirmed by the Slovak Foreign Ministry. Their foreign minister said there had already been a peace summit in Switzerland and they would be happy to host a second one. Putin commented that this arrangement would be fine by him, as Slovakia was considered a country of neutral position.

How much of this is a gesture to Putin and how much is realpolitik is unclear, but let's not forget that Fico blackmailed the Ukrainians saying they will not get electricity if they didn't give Slovakia gas, and then threatened them earlier this year that he would stop helping Ukrainian refugees.

3. On the way to Moscow (and Kiev)

If we count this race from the outbreak of the war in 2022, then the score is tied, 1-1. Since then, Orbán has only been to Moscow in July 2024 (eight times in total since 2010) and Fico just before Christmas last year. Given the dates of the two visits, we get the same result, 1-1, even if we look at things since Fico came to power in 2023.

The recent Moscow meeting was not much advertised by Fico: a few days before Christmas, the Serbian president told Slovakians that their prime minister was travelling to Moscow again after 2016 to discuss European gas supplies and life after the Ukrainian-Russian treaty that expired at the end of the year.

It then emerged that Fico would be travelling at the weekend before Christmas, even earlier than expected, but this was not revealed by the person concerned, but by a Kremlin spokesman. Fico and Putin ended up meeting for two hours, without holding a press conference either before or after.

Fico did say a few words to the press, but only diplomatic generalities, like how they talked about "a quick and peaceful end to the war" and "mutual relations", and that he would like to make contacts more regular. The coalition partner was also surprised by the hastily arranged trip, especially as it was unknown how the head of government had travelled, as all four government planes remained in Slovakia. Therefore, they called on Fico to explain what it was all about.

Orbán's overall record is slightly worsened by the fact that he has already been to Kiev and had a planned meeting with Zelensky, while Fico has not and does not want to go. He even claimed that there was no war there when he met Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmihal in Uzhhorod in Transcarpathia at the end of January last year and was asked by a journalist if he was afraid to go to Kiev. Fico said there was nothing to be afraid of, as life was going on as normal there. This statement resulted in an outcry in the Ukrainian capital.

4. Risks

Determination can also be measured by what is at stake as a result of taking a pro-Russian/anti-Ukrainian stance. We give this win to Fico by a hair's breadth, because his support for Russia might be domestically more destabilizing for him, while foreign policy is more or less evenly balanced.

In terms of domestic support, neither party, Fidesz or Smer, is doing very well, at least compared to themselves. Smer was overtaken by Progressive Slovakia in November, and Fico slipped from second to fifth place in the trust list. There have been several waves of national protests in Slovakia over the prime minister's pro-Russian stance.

In addition, the Russia issue is also causing coalition tensions, with several MPs leaving the governing parties, leaving them with a narrow majority of 76 in the 150-seat parliament. The opposition has also joined forces and would propose a vote of confidence.

In Hungary, Orbán has no reason to fear coalition tensions, and there is no question of anyone quitting the party or the parliamentary group over this issue, but opinion polls show that Fidesz has been taken over by Péter Magyar and his Tisza party. We have covered these Hungarian political trends here,here and here, as well as the fact that Fidesz claims not to believe the polls.

As for relations abroad, Fidesz has angered the Poles with its Russian friendship, while the Slovaks have had a hiccup in their previously good relationship with the Czechs. Already last March, the Czechs suspended the otherwise regular bilateral consultations after the Slovak Foreign Minister met his Russian colleague, Sergei Lavrov. Then, after Fico's visit to Moscow in December, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced the suspension of talks again.

The differences on the Ukraine-Russia topic were already clear at the V4 meeting in Prague in February 2024, which a Polish politician said was more of a V2-V2 rendezvous, with the Slovakian-Hungarian and Czech-Polish pairs separately discussing what they wanted.

+1. Putin

It would be useful to know how Putin views the two politicians. We won't find out too much about that, so we'll have to rely on what's in the public domain. Like the fact that only Orbán got the New Year's greetings in 2023 and 2024, Fico did not, giving the Hungarian prime minister a confident win in this category.

As a consolation prize, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov mentioned Fico by name, saying Putin was expecting him on Victory Day in May.

The final scoreline was 4-1 to Fico with 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 1-0 quarters, and the Moscow parade also gave him the award for the best goal of the match - but as we can see from Putin's New Year's greetings, for the time being, Orban is still leading overall.