John Bolton: There Is a World After Trump's Presidency. Time to Prepare

It might feel like a lot of time has passed since the inauguration, but we’re really just in the first hundred days. There’s a long way to go. Still, I remain optimistic. Trump’s policies are starting to crash into reality. His trade policies, in particular, could trigger serious economic issues. I expect that will bring him down to earth.

I’m not sure I agree about the Republicans. So far, the party seems almost entirely captured by the president.

– If you look at Republican voters across the country, many still align more with the Reagan or Bush wing of the party. Trump has a strong, highly mobilized base. A lot of Republican congressmen and senators feel somewhat intimidated by that.

But the core philosophy behind the Republican Party hasn’t changed much – partly because Trump doesn’t really have one. Someone once said he doesn’t have ideas, just reactions. The issues he picks up don’t form a coherent worldview.

Most Americans believe tariffs are a mistake and will hurt the U.S. and its economy. When that inevitably becomes reality, support [for Trump and the Republicans] will likely drop. It’s possible that in the midterm elections at the end of 2026, Republicans could lose control of the House of Representatives, and that would mean many of the current administration’s reforms would stand no chance of passing.

The presidential election in 2028 will be extremely important.

As someone who once advised Trump closely, maybe you can help us understand him. He seems to constantly shift between bluffing, bargaining, grandstanding, and ego-stroking – especially when it comes to Putin and Zelensky. What does he actually want? To end the war? Because it’s pretty clear to everyone that’s not currently possible.

– I know it’s hard to wrap your head around, but Trump sees everything through a transactional lens – what benefits him politically or economically. There’s no grand national security strategy behind it.

He thinks that if he gets along with other leaders – like Vladimir Putin – that will automatically translate into good relations between the U.S. and other countries. That’s a serious oversimplification. Putin doesn’t think that way. He doesn’t see Trump as a friend – he sees him as someone to manipulate. He’s a former KGB agent, after all, and he knows how to exploit people. And he uses that skill set.

Zelensky hasn’t had a good relationship with Trump since the infamous "perfect phone call" that led to Trump’s first impeachment. Fundamentally, Trump sees the war in Ukraine as Biden’s war. He wants it to end.

He’s called it "pointless" more than once – which shows he doesn’t understand that the Ukrainian people are fighting for their freedom and independence. The truth is, he doesn’t really care how the war ends. What he wants is a Nobel Peace Prize. After all, Barack Obama got one – and he didn’t do much to earn it. Trump wants that too.

Recent statements from both Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggest they realize Putin isn’t in any rush for a ceasefire, let alone a long-term peace deal. Their response might just be to walk away from the issue entirely – which, to me, proves that Trump doesn’t really care what’s at stake in this war. He just wants to keep a friendly relationship with Putin. That’s it.

Can you imagine a scenario where Trump decides enough is enough and increases support for Ukraine and sanctions Russia?

– Putin could definitely overplay his hand. I’ve seen other leaders do it and fall out of Trump’s favor. It’s not impossible. But so far, it seems Putin hasn’t made that mistake.

Lately, Trump has been more preoccupied with the turmoil in the financial markets and the fallout from his tariffs. He’s also trying to reopen negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program – ironically, not much different from what Obama or Biden tried, despite Trump’s earlier promises to reverse their approach.

Overall, he’s pursuing a wilder foreign policy than during his first term: resetting relations with the Putin regime, fantasizing about buying Greenland, threatening Panama, floating the idea of taking over Gaza to build luxury hotels… Contrary to what some expected, he hasn’t turned out to be an isolationist.

– He’s surrounded himself with advisors who won’t tell him, "Mr. President, if you do this, here’s what could go wrong…". He wanted people around him who would just nod along, no matter how bad the idea. That wasn’t the case during his first term. Ultimately, the president always makes the final call. But when he’s only surrounded by yes-men, it’s bad – for the country at least. As a result, the U.S. is squandering decades of carefully built trust with its allies.

At least for now, he hasn’t tried to formally pull the U.S. out of NATO, but he has reduced American engagement in the alliance. David Frum from "The Atlantic" recently wrote that "under Trump, the U.S. has already left NATO, he just didn’t bother with the paperwork". Do you agree?

– No, I wouldn’t go that far – but I do think there’s a real risk of a formal withdrawal. I was with him at the NATO summit in 2018 when he came very close to doing it.

Everyone – especially those who believe in Ronald Reagan-style foreign policy, and our friends in Europe – should understand there is a world after Donald Trump. Our short-term goal should be limiting the damage he does, to make it easier to reverse when he’s gone.

I understand it’s hard for Europeans, given the things he says and the threats facing Central and Eastern European nations in particular. But we need to think bigger and stop getting so caught up in every one of Trump’s absurd ideas. When we do that, we lose sight of the fact that, during the Cold War, the Soviet Union tried and failed to break the unity of the West. That failure was one reason they lost the Cold War. Let’s not do to ourselves what the Soviets couldn’t manage back then.

We’re just wondering in Poland if we can still count on NATO’s Article 5 guarantees.

– With Trump, you can’t count on anything. He changes his mind depending on the time of day and who he spoke to last. His push for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia seemed firm at first, and then he suddenly announced he might just walk away from it. That’s who he is. It takes a lot of effort just to stay connected with him.

I’d encourage all foreign leaders to take a page from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s playbook – he probably handled Trump best during his first term.

They played golf together, right?

– Yes. If you have a leader who plays golf, that goes a long way.

We have a presidential election coming up soon. Maybe we should be asking the candidates about this.

– Voters absolutely should be paying attention to that!

Back to NATO – you’ve said in a recent interview that it needs reform. What would that look like? Although maybe this isn’t the best time for that kind of discussion…

– Actually, I think it’s the perfect time – because it could be a way to distract Trump: throw out the idea of expanding NATO. I picked up on this from former Spanish Prime Minister José María Aznar, who nearly 20 years ago said NATO should become a global alliance. We should consider inviting countries like Japan, Australia, Singapore, or Israel.

In a world where the biggest threat we face is a developing Russia-China axis, a global NATO makes a lot of sense. That axis is backed by Belarus, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua – and until recently, Syria. In response, we need more coordinated action among Western allies.

But that runs counter to Trump’s instincts – he wants to scale back America’s global engagement, not strengthen international organizations.

– True, but if you focus on certain potential members – countries like Japan, Australia, or Israel – that could genuinely pique his interest. You’d have to keep repeating that he has a chance to make history, to fundamentally reshape NATO – transforming it from a North Atlantic alliance into a truly global one.

You have strong connections in U.S. defense circles. What are they saying about the changes in the Pentagon under Trump?

– It’s a serious problem. The leadership at the Pentagon is completely unqualified. I don’t think Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will last long. So far, it doesn’t look like Trump is planning to get rid of him, despite pressure from the media and Democrats – but really, Trump shouldn’t be the one defending Hegseth. It should be the other way around – Hegseth defending him.

There have been some excellent individuals nominated to the Defense Department, but overall, the institution is struggling for many reasons. At a time like this, we need to be strengthening our forces and giving them more resources – not sinking into political chaos.

John Bolton is a lawyer and diplomat, a Republican advisor known for his hawkish stance on foreign policy. He served as U.S. National Security Advisor under Donald Trump from 2018 to 2019. Between 2005 and 2006, he was the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, and before that, Under Secretary of State under George W. Bush. He also served in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations.

Translation: Patrycja Eiduka